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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still