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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."